So it's the last days of September, the crypto market has almost passed a "stormy" September. When only in the past 1 month, the market has experienced a series of macro events such as: CPI consumer price index, The Merge ETH 2.0 event, Fed's announcement of interest rate increase for September. At the time of writing BTC is still holding and trading around the 19k price mark. Looking back at history, September every year, mostly the red month of the crypto market, and October will be the month when the green will return to the cryptocurrency market. So whether the scenario of years will repeat in October this year. Let's predict the market scenario of October with Holdstation through this article!
Onchain situation
Looking at Bitcoin's 1D and 4H charts, both are in a descending triangle accumulation pattern. However, in the 4H frame chart, the price of BTC is tending to break the upward pattern. A possible scenario for the last days of September is that BTC will still sideway around the 19k mark.
In addition, observational data from CryptoQuant shows that a large number of stablecoins on the floor are waiting to catch the bottom. The number of BTC deposited/withdrawn from the exchange also recorded the deepest drop throughout September. The Fundingrate index of the non-term futures contract also witnessed a gradual stabilization after The Merge event. The above data is showing that investors are standing still and tend to observe which direction the market is going.
Macro situation
The market has gone through a stormy September with a series of macro news announced. However, October seems to be more stable as there is no macro information that has a specific schedule in advance like September. The greenback's strength index is also showing signs of peaking since the old peak. 2002. The FOMC meeting and the speech of the Fed chair Jerome Powell in general, although there was not too much positive information, but the interest rate also increased as predicted by the media. October will also be the last warm months of Europe, before entering a winter that is forecast to be much harsher than the previous year. With the war situation of Russia and Ukraine showing no signs of cooling down, the shortage of gas for heating in Europe will cause the macroeconomic situation to be significantly affected. Europe's winter time is still about 1 month from now until the market will recover and go up in doubt.
Perspective of author
The expectation of the individual writing the article will still be green again for the cryptocurrency market when history has recorded that October every year will be a growth time for the whole market. The expected scenario will be BTC returning to test 18-18k200 before rebounding to 21k, 23k and 25k.
Why does the individual writing the article not think that BTC will dump in October? There are many reasons and stories that investors can refer to and consider as follows:
The story of financial markets is generally the story of market makers. First, if you put yourself in the position of market makers, will market makers let the market dump? The answer would be NO. The first reason we can see that the number of stablecoins waiting on the exchange is very large, the confidence in the market of investors is still very much. So if BTC falls to the 13k or 15k areas, the amount of money pouring in to catch the bottom will be extremely large.
Therefore, leaving the price of BTC sideways for frustrated, impatient investors and letting go is a much better direction than letting BTC free fall to the 13-15k zone. I personally think that Market Makers will even let the market have a mini pump that pushes BTC to the 22k or even 25k region until retail investors, new money flows into the fomo market afraid to give up. If you miss the opportunity to uptrend, that's when the whole crypto market will be on fire and really enter the crypto winter.
