It's been almost 2 weeks since the FTX crash but we still haven't received any news that has a clear negative impact on the market like the LUNA crash. The lesson of Luna is still there, whether this is the peace before a big "storm" is waiting to hit the crypto market. Let's find out with Holdstation to see if there is a scenario for another deep crash of BTC below 15k in this analysis!
Macro situation
The fight against inflation is still going on very hot in some big countries like the UK or the US, the overall situation of the countries is still in a very difficult period. The image above depicts the UK's solution to fighting inflation that has not been effective when the country's October inflation continued to increase by 1% compared to September.
On the other side of the hemisphere, the country with the world's number one economy, the United States, has not yet had a specific plan for any expected reduction in the increase in bank interest rates in 2023. Not to mention, when the world situation is entering the end of 2022, the world's consumer demand for shopping will increase, causing the price of goods to increase from there. It will also be a factor that makes it difficult to contain inflation.
In addition to the market economic situation, there is also the issue of the war between Russia and Ukraine that has not had many positive changes, when just a few hours ago Ukraine received a missile launch that killed 2 people in Poland. caused by them.
Onchain situation
If we look at the chart of $BTC in D1 frame, we can see that the price of $BTC has been almost sideways for the past 10 days with a narrowing range as technical analysis shows the price. of $BTC is approaching the end of an accumulation wedge. Two possible scenarios after completing the accumulation pattern is BTC could break from here or BTC will pump to the next resistance areas around 17k4 and then possibly 18k.
Another notable data for investors is the sudden increase in the amount of BTC withdrawn from exchanges. While this should theoretically be a good signal for the market as it reflects diminishing BTC selling pressure, it is not entirely a confirmation signal that BTC has bottomed. When we look back at the lesson of Luna, we also see similar figures when the collapse took place, the prices of BTC also only side and had a slight recovery, not creating a bottom in the time period up to now.
The most recent information about a hacker has discharged 25,000 ETH by swapping ETH to wBTC to borrow BTC above 1 inch. A few days ago, there was also a rumor about Vitalik Buterin having released a certain amount of $ETH, which also sparked a lot of speculation about the price of $ETH in the near future. One thing that is also quite worrisome from this event is that about 200,000 $ETH or $270 million is still in this Hacker's wallet. That is, $ETH is currently still under a pressure drop that can happen at any time.
Personal perspective
Basically, this is the nightmare scenario playing out in real-time
— kamikaz ΞTH 🦇🔊 (@kamikaz_ETH) November 20, 2022
The FTX Hacker is now steadily dumping ETH on-chain
He just loaded up another full clip of 25,000 ETH and has another 200,000 ETH remaining in his main wallet
$270 million incoming spot ETH sell pressure 😔 https://t.co/ddm9JyTSaM pic.twitter.com/cujTQJZgk6
After the collapse of FTX, I personally believe that, with the growth that FTX has built, it is inevitable that FTX has connections to projects, large and small companies. Let's turn to a more real-life example in Vietnam with the collapse of leading enterprises, large and small in Vietnam such as FLC or Tan Hoang Minh, followed by a chain of Dominoes that caused the stock market to fall from the mark. 1500 points around the 900 point mark. So will a billion dollar company, one of the world's leading companies in the crypto industry, really won't have much impact on the overall crypto market? This question can be completely answered by investors.
Besides, the period of 1 week back when CZ continuously shilled the wallet trend and Fan tokens was somewhat a factor keeping the price of BTC temporarily sideways. When the World Cup takes place and everything cools down, the fan tokens that are gradually taking profits from investors will be the signal for when the cryptocurrency market really "bleeds".
The individual who wrote the article predicted the minimum $BTC would return to the 13k area and then sideway and create a bottom, the time to catch the bottom of $BTC is definitely not the present time.